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CNBC's Inside India newsletter: A disconnected stock market
  + stars: | 2024-05-10 | by ( Ganesh Rao | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +5 min
CNBCThis report is from this week's CNBC's "Inside India" newsletter which brings you timely, insightful news and market commentary on the emerging powerhouse and the big businesses behind its meteoric rise. For local investors, Indian stocks would have underperformed the U.S. benchmark by more than 45 percentage points since Buffett's 2008 bet. It appears that India's near 8% GDP growth isn't transforming into stock market returns. But that has also meant significant competition for the incumbents, many of which are listed on the stock market. This year has also been particularly unlucky for Indian stock market investors thanks to the uncertainty added by politics.
Persons: Warren Buffett, it's, Jonathan Pines, Federated Hermes, Rajeev Agrawal, Agrawal, Narendra Modi's, Kevin Carter, Buffett, Carter, Modi, Narendra Modi, Amit Shah, Virat Kohli, Rajat Patidar Organizations: Berkshire, CNBC, BSE, Federated, DoorDarshi Advisors, Narendra Modi's BJP, India, Ecommerce, One97 Communications, Ujjivan Financial, BJP, Russia, Indian, Ukraine, India's Central Bureau of Investigation, Indian Premier League, Wednesday, Royal Challengers Bengaluru Locations: Omaha , Nebraska, Omaha, BSE India, India, United States, Gandhinagar Lok Sabha, Russia, Mumbai, Punjab Kings
New York prosecutors claim he falsified business records to hide a payment to Stormy Daniels in an early act of election interference in 2016. Trump’s base voters have no problems either with his criminal trials or his false claims that he was cheated out of office. Israel may be far from the biggest worry for Trump’s campaignPolls consistently show that voters care most about the economy. And voters who say the economy is very important to their vote backed Trump over Biden 62% to 30%. It’s not clear that heated Republicans attacks on Biden over Israel Thursday will seriously wound him with his own voters.
Persons: Joe Biden, Biden, Donald Trump –, pollsters, Trump, Stormy Daniels, He’s, Biden outpolls, Trump’s, CNN’s Erin Burnett, Burnett, , ” Biden, , George H.W, Bush, ” Bush, Bill Clinton, Clinton, Israel —, Benjamin Netanyahu, Netanyahu, Republican Sen, Thom Tillis, GOP Sen, Josh Hawley Organizations: CNN, New, Republican, Biden, Federal, Capitol, Arab American, Hamas, Israel, Israel Thursday, GOP, Capitol Hill, Democratic Locations: Wisconsin, East, Ukraine, Gaza, America, Manhattan, New York, it’s, Israel, United States, Arkansas, Scranton, Gazan, Rafah, Michigan, Missouri
Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey addresses the media during the central bank's Monetary Policy Report press conference at the Bank of England, in London, Britain, on February 1, 2024. LONDON — Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey on Thursday played down any political pressure received by his institution, confirming that a rate cut immediately before a General Election wouldn't be out of the question. This is especially true in election cycles if citizens are dealing with an economic downturn or a cost-of-living squeeze. The Bank of England, which became officially independent in 1998, is no stranger to this pressure with elections expected before the end of this year. The Bank is nearing its first rate cut since 2020, despite holding steady on Thursday.
Persons: Andrew Bailey, wouldn't, Bailey, CNBC's Steve Sedgwick, it's Organizations: England, Bank of England, LONDON — Bank of England Locations: London, Britain
CNN —Russia’s President Vladimir Putin said his forces were “always ready” to combat external threats, as he addressed crowds gathered at Moscow’s Red Square on Thursday to celebrate the Soviet Union’s victory over Nazi Germany in World War II. Around 27 million people in the Soviet Union died in World War II, more than in any other country. Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu salutes soldiers as he is driven along Red Square. Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova told TASS in an interview that “unfriendly countries” were not invited for a third Victory Day since the war in Ukraine began. His Victory Day address comes just days after the Russian leader was inaugurated for a fifth term in office, in a carefully choreographed ceremony.
Persons: CNN —, Vladimir Putin, , Putin, ” Putin, , Sergei Shoigu, Alexander Nemenov, Sefa, Shoigu, Alexander Lukashenko of, Emomali, Serdar, Miguel Diaz, Thongloun, Maria Zakharova, ” Zakharova, Mikhail Klimentyev, Reuters Putin Organizations: CNN, Nazi, Russian, Getty, Canel, Russian Foreign Ministry, TASS, Sputnik, Reuters, Kyiv, Kremlin Locations: Soviet, Nazi Germany, Russia, Ukraine, “ Russia, AFP, Red Square, Anadolu, Alexander Lukashenko of Belarus, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Cuba, Laos, Guinea, Bissau, Russian, United States
If former President Donald Trump wins a second term in the November election, expect him to try to stay in power beyond his allotted four years, says Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz. Right now, a second Trump term is a real possibility. AdvertisementInstead, Trump is more likely to declare a state of emergency, Stiglitz said, in an attempt to delay or cancel elections. The executive branch has no power to move the date of elections, according to the National Constitution Center. AdvertisementChanging an election date via Congress would need the approval of both the Senate and the House of Representatives, and the two chambers would have to come up with a new election date, per the National Constitution Center.
Persons: Donald Trump, Joseph Stiglitz, Putin, Orbán, Bolsonaro, Stiglitz, Trump, Joe Biden, Brad Raffensperger, Mike Pence, I'm, Pence, Ronald Reagan Organizations: Service, Business, Trump, RealClearPolitics, Georgia, Capitol, Republican Senate, Congress, National Constitution Center, Senate, Representatives, Constitution Center, Congressional Research Service, CRS, :, Good Society Locations: Ohio
Celebratory gunshots rang out in the capital of the Central African nation of Chad on Thursday night after its military ruler, President Mahamat Idriss Déby, was declared the winner of a highly scripted presidential election on national television. Two hours before the official broadcast, a “resounding victory” had been claimed by his main challenger, Succès Masra, the opposition leader who has been the country’s prime minister since January, after he returned from exile abroad and made a deal with Mr. Déby. But the preliminary results announced by Chad’s National Elections Management Agency depicted a resounding victory for the other side. Mr. Déby, it said, won 61 percent of the vote, and Mr. Masra 18.5 percent. Many analysts saw the result of Chad’s election as a foregone conclusion, and one that had been masterminded by a supposedly transitional government that never had any intention of relinquishing power.
Persons: Mahamat Idriss Déby, , Succès Masra, Déby Organizations: Central, Mr, Chad’s National Elections Management Agency Locations: Central African, Chad
BRUSSELS, Belgium — European diplomats have already started key negotiations on who will take the main jobs at the European Union following elections next month. Voters across the 27-member EU are heading to the polls between June 6 and 9 to choose the next set of representatives in the European Parliament. The very top EU jobs, which aren't directly elected, then get dished out in the weeks following. Diplomats within the EU are already trying to figure out who will be leading the three big institutions in the coming years: The European Commission, the European Council and the European Parliament. "Von der Leyen has a lot of support from European heads of state," one of the three sources told CNBC via telephone.
Persons: aren't, Ursula von der Leyen, Von der Leyen, Emmanuel Macron, Christine Lagarde Organizations: European, Voters, EU, Parliament, Diplomats, European Commission, European Council, CNBC, European Central Bank Locations: BRUSSELS, Belgium, policymaking, Brussels
New Delhi CNN —Two of the planet’s richest businessmen are becoming embroiled in India’s increasingly divisive election campaign. “Why has Shahzade Ji stopped talking of Ambani and Adani in this election all of sudden? “How much money have you taken from Ambani and Adani?” he said at the rally. Adani took over NDTV, an influential broadcaster, in 2022, while Ambani owns Network 18, which includes the CNN-News18 TV channel, a CNN affiliate. Billionaire RajIn the last decade, both Ambani and Adani have stunned the world with their success and influence.
Persons: Narendra Modi, Modi, Mukesh Ambani, Gautam Adani, Ambani, Ji, ” Modi, Rahul Gandhi, , Gandhi, Modi ” Gandhi, , Abhinandan Sekhri, Adani, Billionaire Raj, Cassanelli, Jeff Bezos, Hindenburg’s, ferociously Organizations: New, New Delhi CNN, Reliance Industries, Adani, Indian National Congress, Reliance, CNN, India’s, Bank of India, NDTV, Billionaire, Bloomberg, Hindenburg Locations: New Delhi, India, Asia, American
In APAC alone, there was a surge in deepfakes by 1530% from 2022 to 2023, according to a Sumsub report. But one top expert is going against the grain, suggesting instead that the threat deep fakes pose to democracy may be "overblown." However, new generative AI tools do "threaten to make the generation of fake content easier," he added. In any case, it is unlikely that the generation of content is limiting attackers," Lee said. Experts have previously told CNBC that they expect AI-generated disinformation to be a key risk in upcoming elections around the world.
Persons: Martin Lee, Lee Organizations: Cisco's, CNBC Locations: deepfakes
At 3 a.m. one day last December, a 78-year-old volunteer for the British Conservative Party was reportedly woken by a call from Mark Menzies, the Conservative lawmaker she worked for. The volunteer, a former campaign manager for Mr. Menzies, paid the sum out of her own savings. Mr. Menzies, who was suspended from the party last month, denies that allegation and others, which include using £14,000 from party funds for personal medical bills. Yet the affair epitomizes a Conservative Party in crisis. Lord Salisbury, Stanley Baldwin, Winston Churchill and Margaret Thatcher led the Conservative Party for more or less 15 years.
Persons: Mark Menzies, , Menzies, Rishi Sunak, Mr, Sunak, Lord Salisbury, Stanley Baldwin, Winston Churchill, Margaret Thatcher, Organizations: British Conservative Party, Conservative, Conservative Party, Tories, Conservatives, Labour Party, Tory Locations: England, Wales
The US could use a simple tool to strategically weaken the US dollar for economic gains. A reduction in the federal deficit would help tame inflation and weaken the US dollar. AdvertisementThat's why a weakening US dollar is music to the ears of American corporations, trade partners, and policymakers. That agreement devalued the US dollar, stabilized trade with Japan, and helped reduce the US trade deficit. A balanced Federal budget would help them achieve that scenario without putting the economy at risk.
Persons: , It's, isn't, Donald Trump Organizations: Service, Swiss, America's, China, Accord Locations: Europe, China, Japan, Asia
At issue is a map drawn by state lawmakers that included a second majority African American district in Louisiana’s six-district congressional plan. The Supreme Court’s intervention, the groups argued Wednesday, “is needed to ensure that harm is not repeated.”The Supreme Court could allow the newly drawn congressional districts to be used in this year’s election. Throughout the process, Republican lawmakers suggested in public statements that a primary motivation was to adhere to court orders and draw a second majority Black district. The Supreme Court is already weighing a separate equal protection challenge over South Carolina’s congressional maps. Given the delay in the Supreme Court issuing its decision, the lower court has ruled that the 2024 elections can proceed under the map it previously deemed unconstitutional.
Persons: , , , Allen, Milligan, Mike Johnson, Steve Scalise, doesn’t, Donald Trump, Bill Clinton, Taiwan Scott Organizations: CNN, Civil, Court, White, Republicans, African American, , GOP, Supreme, Supreme Court, Republican, South, South Carolina State Conference of, NAACP, American Locations: Black, Louisiana, Louisiana’s, Alabama, Shreveport, Baton Rouge, Taiwan, South Carolina
Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . And the knock-on effects extend beyond TikTok, impacting everything from President Joe Biden's reelection campaign to Apple and Tesla . AdvertisementTikTok, Tyler Le/BIThe TikTok-US government fight pits two pillars of American society against each other: free speech and national security. 3 things in businessDeliormanli/Getty, Olivier Verriest/Getty, Andrei Akushevich/Getty, Tyler Le/BIIn other newsAdvertisementWhat's happening todayToday's earnings: Airbnb, Uber, and other companies are reporting .
Persons: , swiping, Tyler Le, ByteDance, Dan Whateley, Geoff Weiss, Joe Biden's, It'll, TikTok, hasn't, haven't, Fallon, Jane Fraser isn't, Fraser, Piper Sandler, Michael Kantrowitz, Josh Edelson, Isabel Fernandez, Mark Zuckerberg, Zuckerberg, Getty, Olivier Verriest, Andrei Akushevich, Dan DeFrancesco, Jordan Parker Erb, Hallam Bullock, George Glover Organizations: Business, Service, Apple, Chinese Communist Party, Big Tech, Getty, Pujol, Associated Press, Facebook Locations: France, China, Beijing, Citadel, Millennium, AFP, New York, London
For Bulgarian Voters, It’s Groundhog Day, Again
  + stars: | 2024-05-08 | by ( Andrew Higgins | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +1 min
For citizens of the United States, Britain, India and dozens of other countries around the world, 2024 is a big, high-stakes election year. For Dimitar Naydenov, a Bulgarian member of Parliament and restaurant owner, it offers only yet another Groundhog Day: Bulgaria in June holds its sixth general election in three years with a vote for a new Parliament. The total number of elections in those years is even higher — eight — if those for president and European Parliament are included. “I’ve done this so many times people have started to feel pity for me,” he said. But pity Bulgarian voters, too.
Persons: Dimitar Naydenov, , Mr, Naydenov, shuddering, Locations: United States, Britain, India, Bulgarian, Bulgaria, Burgas
Opinion: Russia can lose this war
  + stars: | 2024-05-08 | by ( Opinion Timothy Snyder | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +6 min
And far too many of us, during Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine, have believed that. Of its three most consequential foreign wars, the Red Army lost two. And the Russian army of today is not the Red Army. It was disproportionately Ukrainians who fought their war to Berlin in the uniform of the Red Army. Russia can lose this war, and should, for the sake of Russians themselves.
Persons: Timothy Snyder, Richard C, Levin, , , Read, Leonid Brezhnev, Putin, Alexander Nemenov, Brezhnev, Vladimir Putin, Robert Nickelsberg Organizations: Global Affairs, Yale University, CNN, Russia, Getty, Red, Red Army, Soviet, Lease, Russian Empire, Russo, Fascism Locations: Nazi Germany, Russia, Ukraine, AFP, Poland, Afghanistan, USSR, Soviet Ukraine, Berlin, United States, Russian, Crimean, Japanese, Europe, Pacific, Kabul, Soviet Union, Crimea, Japan, Soviet, Ukrainian
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman says AI's impact on the economy should be a top of mind concern. Research suggests AI has the potential to affect millions of jobs and lead to lower wages. But when OpenAI CEO Sam Altman was asked for his thoughts on how the spread of AI-generated misinformation may affect elections, the tech leader appeared to be more concerned about another issue: AI's impact on the economy. An International Monetary Fund study from earlier this year found that AI may impact roughly 60% of jobs in "advanced economies." But Altman said he is still worried about AI's potential on the labor market.
Persons: Sam Altman, , Altman, that's, they've Organizations: Service, Business, International Monetary Fund, IMF, McKinsey, CNBC
While Mr. Kennedy is unlikely to win the Republican-dominated state, his addition to the presidential race in Texas could have an unintended and unexpected consequence: lending a hand to the Democratic challenger seeking to unseat Senator Ted Cruz. For weeks, the Cruz campaign has been privately expressing concern, seeing Mr. Kennedy as perhaps the biggest wild card in a race that Mr. Cruz had hoped to comfortably win. Texas has favored Mr. Trump in the last two elections, winning about 52 percent of the state’s vote in 2020. But a three-way race in November could upset that balance by bringing more voters to the polls who dislike both Mr. Trump and President Biden. More of those voters appear to also dislike Mr. Cruz, a two-term incumbent with nearly universal name recognition in Texas.
Persons: Robert F, Kennedy Jr, Kennedy, Ted Cruz, Cruz, Trump, Biden, Mr Organizations: Republican, Democratic, Texas Locations: Texas
“I think it is at the center of one of the worst crises for American democracy this century, certainly in recent decades,” Applebaum told me by phone Tuesday. “They don’t believe journalists. They don’t believe independent ombudsman. They don’t believe institutions or science. It is not possible to understand why Trump continues to hold a firm grip over the Republican Party without understanding the propaganda machine at his disposal.
Persons: CNN — Anne Applebaum, , Donald Trump, Applebaum, authoritarians —, ” Applebaum, Vladimir Putin’s, Vladimir Putin’s Russia “, Trump, Rupert Murdoch, Tucker Carlson, Sean Hannity, Steve Bannon, , it’s, Steve Bannon’s, that’s, David Muir, Lester Holt, Norah O’Donnell, Carlson, MAGA Organizations: CNN, Trump, Putin, Sputnik, MAGA Media, New York Times, Washington, Fox News, Republican Party Locations: U.S, Vladimir Putin’s Russia, Ukraine
CNN —Vladimir Putin has formally begun his fifth term as Russia’s president in a carefully choreographed inauguration ceremony, in a country he has shaped in his image after first taking office nearly a quarter of a century ago. Putin won Russia’s stage-managed election by an overwhelming majority in March, securing for himself another six-year term that could see him rule until at least his 77th birthday. Attendees wait in the Kremlin as Putin arrives for his inauguration ceremony. Putin waves during his inauguration ceremony. To ensure it has enough drones and missiles to bombard Ukraine, Russia has also entered into deeper partnerships with Iran and North Korea.
Persons: CNN — Vladimir Putin, Putin, – Putin, , Matthew Miller, Putin’s, Maxim Shemetov, Wagner, Yevgeny Prigozhin, Prigozhin, Alexey Navalny, Navalny, , ” Putin Organizations: CNN, Kremlin, US State Department, Reuters, US Embassy, Presidential Locations: Russia, Ukraine, United States, Kremlin, Moscow, Russian, Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Iran, North Korea
As experts warn that images, audio and video generated by artificial intelligence could influence the fall elections, OpenAI is releasing a tool designed to detect content created by its own popular image generator, DALL-E. start-up acknowledges that this tool is only a small part of what will be needed to fight so-called deepfakes in the months and years to come. On Tuesday, OpenAI said it would share its new deepfake detector with a small group of disinformation researchers so they could test the tool in real-world situations and help pinpoint ways it could be improved. “This is to kick-start new research,” said Sandhini Agarwal, an OpenAI researcher who focuses on safety and policy. “That is really needed.”
Persons: OpenAI, , Sandhini Agarwal
How US presidential election years affect the market
  + stars: | 2024-05-07 | by ( Jeanne Sahadi | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +5 min
But if the past century is any guide, the long-term consequences of US presidential election years on investor portfolios, including 401(k)s, is minimal at best. Unsurprisingly, those four presidential election years occurred at times of seismic events: The Great Depression. The S&P 500 alone has generated an average return of 7% during presidential election years since 1952, according to LPL Financial. If you limit that to presidential election years in which the incumbent president is running for reelection, the average jumps to 12.2%. “If you’re not going to make a change in a nonelection year, you shouldn’t do so in a presidential election year,” Mukherjee said.
Persons: TIAA, , Niladri Mukherjee, Jeff Buchbinder, Joe Biden, Donald Trump, ” Mukherjee, Mukherjee, What’s, — Mukherjee, you’re, Daniel Crosby, Crosby Organizations: New, New York CNN, US Bank, , Senate Locations: New York, United States
Apple wants to give the iPad a boost
  + stars: | 2024-05-07 | by ( Dan Defrancesco | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +7 min
The tech giant's event will reportedly showcase a new family of… iPads and iPad accessories. But Apple's event , which kicks off at 10 a.m. EST, is looking to give the iPad a boost. iPhone sales have noticeably dipped, which is why you're hearing Apple tout its "services" business , writes BI's Peter Kafka. And the new product Apple wants you to be excited about — the Vision Pro — hasn't lived up to the hype. a16z joins the Big Tech "fake work" debate.
Persons: , Tyler Le, they're, iPads, Antonio Villas, Boas, BI's Peter Kafka, Peter, hasn't, Katie Notopoulos, Wall, Lauren DeCicca, Tim Cook, Katie, aren't, I'd, we'll, I'm, Alyssa Powell, Danielle DiMartino Booth, James Devaney, Roger Kisby, Jack Dorsey's, Elon, Dorsey, Elon Musk, Satya Nadella, OpenAI, Jeff Bezos, Mark Zuckerberg, Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway, a16z, Emily Sundberg, Andreessen Horowitz, David Ulevitch, Vladimir Putin, Dan DeFrancesco, Jordan Parker Erb, Hallam Bullock, George Glover Organizations: Service, Business, Apple, Google, Getty, US Treasury, National Bureau of Economic Research, Images, Penske Media, Microsoft, Tech, Paramount, Berkshire, Big Tech, Walt Disney Company Locations: BREIT, New York, London
CNN —Extraordinary global heat continues its streak. It marks 11 consecutive months of unprecedented global temperatures. With that new data point, some scientists warn there is a strong chance 2024 could beat 2023 as the warmest year on record. Global ocean heat in April was also record-breaking for the 13th consecutive month. And while heat records are still being set month after month, the margins at which they are being broken are smaller than they were in 2023.
Persons: Copernicus, Adnan Abidi, Lisa Marie David, El Niño, Niño, it’s, Zeke Hausfather, ” Hausfather, Indranil Aditya, , Carlo Buontempo Organizations: CNN, Reuters, Getty Locations: Asia, Bangladesh, Vietnam, India, Barmer, Rajasthan, Manila, Philippines, Berkeley, Mumbai
Ahead of parliamentary elections widely expected to deliver gains to the hard right, European leaders can barely conceal their anxiety. What is power in contemporary Europe, and how should it be exercised by the European Union? Mr. Macron answered in princely fashion, showing awareness of both the finite nature of every political community — Europe is “mortal,” he said — and its cyclical vulnerability to crisis. Mr. Macron brushed aside the many Europeans who feel the bloc is aloof and inaccessible, describing their disenchantment as a result of “false arguments.” The dismissal was no aberration. This exclusion has changed the contours of the European landscape, paving the way for the radical right.
Persons: Emmanuel Macron, Lorenzo de ’ Medici, Machiavelli, ” Machiavelli, Macron, , Organizations: European Union Locations: Europe, France, Florentine Republic, European
Wall Street bonuses to rise this year as deals return, says report
  + stars: | 2024-05-07 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +1 min
Bonuses are poised to recover on Wall Street this year, fueled by strong equity market gains and recovery in investment banking, according to financial services compensation firm Johnson Associates. As initial public offerings come back, bonuses for equity underwriters are expected to rise 10% to 20% this year. "We are seeing almost all segments on Wall Street raising compensation", said the firm's founder Alan Johnson. Higher trading volumes are expected to increase bonuses for bond traders between 10% and 20%, and 5% to 15% higher for equity traders. Executives working at wealth management will probably have 5% to 10% higher compensation, whereas asset management and hedge fund employees are expected to receive 5% higher bonuses.
Persons: Johnson, Alan Johnson Organizations: Johnson Associates, Investment Locations: U.S
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